Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are the primary cause of the climate emergency. If we continue with our current path, we will face more intense and more widespread extreme weather events. We must quit burning oil, gas and coal as soon as possible.
Continued increases in carbon emissions from fossil fuels
Over the past sixty years carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and gas have increased by about 3.7 times. In 1962, burning these fossil fuels generated approximately 9.5 billion tonnes in carbon dioxide. That amount increased to 35.1 billion tonnes in 2022. This is even after the recent moderating impact of the global pandemic.
During this time, the world population increased from just over 3 billion to about 8 billion, an increase of about 2.6 times.
The amount of carbon dioxide generated per person in wealthy countries is much higher than for poorer countries. For example, in 2016, Canadians produced an average of 17.05 tonnes of carbon dioxide (nearly four times the world average of 4.35 tonnes per person), while Indians emitted an average of 1.73 tonnes and Nigerians released an average of 0.40 tonnes of carbon dioxide.
What happens to carbon dioxide emissions?
Once emitted, carbon dioxide goes to the atmosphere, the upper ocean and land-based vegetation. Subsequently, carbon moves to different reservoirs of the global carbon cycle, such as soil, the deeper ocean and rocks. However, some of these exchanges occur very slowly. Depending on the amount of carbon dioxide released, 15-40% will remain in the atmosphere for up to two thousand years.
Since the industrial era, and especially over the last seventy years, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased dramatically. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket, trapping some of the heat that otherwise would radiate into space. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere absorbs infrared energy coming from Earth and sends about half of it back to Earth as heat.
This is the ‘greenhouse effect’ that is causing the world to warm.
Fossil fuels account for about 90% of carbon dioxide emissions and more than 75% of all greenhouse gases. That’s why it is critical to quit burning fossil fuels as soon as possible.
Earth is getting warmer
Earth’s average surface air temperature has increased by more than 1°C since 1900, with over half of the increase occurring in the last fifty years. Many other observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice, increased ocean heat and rising sea levels) and indications from the natural world (such as poleward shifts of temperature-sensitive animals) together provide incontrovertible evidence of planetary-scale warming. The most recent ten-year period (2010-2019) was the warmest decade since records began in 1850.
Looking forward, we are not going to meet the 2016 Paris Agreement target to keep global temperature from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The scientific community considers 1.5°C the upper limit to avoid the worst impacts of a warming planet. Things are not looking good.
Weather impacts from a warming planet
Burning fossil fuels is the primary reason for the relatively rapid warming of Earth’s atmosphere, ocean and land. This warming has already created many weather and climate extremes across the planet. We have already endured more frequent extreme heatwaves, heavier precipitation, severe droughts and intense tropical cyclones.
Extreme heat has become more frequent and intense across most regions over the last sixty years while cold extremes have become less frequent and severe. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased over the last sixty years. Tropical cyclones have increased in number and intensity over the last forty years.
These extreme weather events will become more frequent and intense. Things will just get worse.
Other climate change impacts
Climate change has caused substantial damages to terrestrial, freshwater, cryospheric (ice), coastal and open ocean ecosystems. Many animals have moved to cooler areas. Many species have become extinct, and many others are threatened with extinction. Climate change has contributed to desertification and exacerbated land degradation, particularly in low lying coastal areas, river deltas, drylands and permafrost areas.
Climate change has slowed the growth in agricultural productivity over the past fifty years. Ocean warming has contributed to a decrease in catch potential and compounded the impacts from overfishing. Ocean warming and acidification have reduced food production from shellfish aquaculture and fisheries.
Half of the world’s population experiences severe water scarcity, partly due to global warming. Unsustainable agricultural expansion, driven in part by meat intensive diets, has led to degradation of land and water resources. Extreme weather events have exposed millions of people to food and water insecurity.
Extreme heat events have killed many people and contributed to an increase in disease. Climate change has disrupted social, cultural and economic conditions. Weather extremes are driving displacement in many parts of the world.
Heatwaves and heavy rain hit cities especially hard, particularly those living in informal settlements. Urbanization intensifies human-caused warming and increases the amount of rain that falls downwind of cities. Extreme weather events have caused massive damage to urban infrastructure with attendant negative economic impacts.
These and other impacts resulting from a warming planet will get worse. How much worse will depend largely on how fast we can quit burning oil, gas and coal.
Final comments
Have I convinced you that we must quit our dependence on fossil fuels as soon as possible? Do you have anything to add to my summary?
Thanks Bill – lots of useful information. Yes it’s frightening..how are we- will we ever- wean ourselves off fossil fuels? Carbon emissions keep increasing despite Governments saying they will reduce them! And what will happen when the methane bombs are released as the Artics thaw? Keep writing an watch the documentary “ Kiss the Ground” for some Climate cheer!
I watched ‘Kiss the Ground’. It’s a very good movie. Very informative and leaves you with some reason for hope.
I didn’t even mention wildfires!
Last paragraph in a recent Canadian Press story about heat warnings in Canada:
Scientists have warned that 2023 could see record heat as human-caused climate change, driven largely by the burning of fossil fuels like coal, natural gas and oil, warmed the atmosphere. They also noted that La Nina, the natural cooling of the ocean that had acted as a counter, was giving way to El Niño, the reverse phenomenon marked by warming oceans.
A 2021 study from Harvard estimated that air pollution from burning hydrocarbons is responsible for nearly 14 percent of premature deaths in Canada annually.
David Suzuki Foundation recently provided this tidy summary of the impacts of burning fossil fuels:
We’re now seeing the costly, devastating consequences: increasing wildfires, heat domes, droughts, water shortages, intense hurricanes and floods, extinction rates and biodiversity loss, pollution- and heat-related health issues and death and people fleeing increasingly inhospitable parts of the world.