It’s going to get hotter than hell!

Scientists define global heating as the increase in temperature of the earth’s atmosphere caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases and other detrimental human activity such as deforestation. We know that global heating has many negative climate and ecosystem impacts. I’m just going to talk about the most obvious impact: more very hot weather.

All temperatures quoted are in Celsius.

Heating of the planet has accelerated

The global mean temperature increased dramatically since about 1980 (not coincidentally, during the early days of Neoliberal ideology). 2023 was about 1.4 degrees above the 1850-1900 baseline. Most of the gain has been since 1980. 

The last ten consecutive years was the warmest ten years on record. And 2023 was the hottest year, by a huge margin. Early indications are that 2024 was warmer than 2023.

It’s hot and it’s going to get much hotter.

Before diving into all the very hot weather that has happened recently, I’m going to address how scientist measure global heating — I like the term ‘heating’ better than ‘warming’ because it connotes a more appropriate level of alarm. The heating of the planet has frightening implications for our climate.

Let’s talk about average global temperature

When scientists quote changes in global mean temperatures, it has nothing to do with weather. It’s just that they use temperature to quantify the overall heating of the planet. Tracking global mean temperature is an effective way of monitoring changes in Earth’s energy budget, which is the balance between the sunlight Earth absorbs and the heat it radiates to space. 

Many independent research groups across the world perform their own analysis of the surface temperature data from multiple locations around the globe. Most reporting uses averages from several sources. This process provides a consistent, reliable method for monitoring changes in Earth’s surface temperature over time.

It’s not useful to relate our own experience of air temperature to the focus on global mean temperature. Depending on where you live, daily minimum and maximum temperatures can vary by ten degrees or even more. And winter lows can be 50 degrees less than summer high temperatures. In this everyday context, a change of one degree or less seems trivial. However, even a very small increase in global heating as measured in average global temperature is significant and will have a major impact on the world’s climate. One of the more obvious changes to our climate will be a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

More frequent and more extreme heatwaves

There have been more frequent heatwaves in the last two decades — and the heatwaves have been longer and featured higher temperatures. I’ll just focus on the last five years starting in 2020. 

In 2020, there were at least six major heatwaves:

• January saw very high temperatures (up to 48.9) in the Canberra area of Australia.
• Late spring saw a heatwave in New England and eastern Canada. High temperatures of up to 37.2.
• Early summer brought very hot weather to Siberia with temperatures up to 38.0.
• Later in the summer, a heatwave struck the UK with temperatures up to 37.8.
• Late summer saw very high temperatures (up to 57.0) in western USA.
• Also in summer, there was a heatwave in Japan with temperatures up to 41.1.

In 2021, there were at least eight major heatwaves:

• A winter heatwave hit Europe and Asia with unseasonable temperatures up to 25.6.
• Also in winter, there were unusually high temperatures (up to 35.0) in Siberia and the arctic.
• In late spring, a heatwave hit the prairies in the US and Canada. High temperatures of up to 41.3.
• In early summer there were very high temperatures (up to 53.0) in southwestern US.
• Also in early summer, a ‘heat dome’ created record high temperatures (up to 49.6) in northwestern US and British Columbia. I lived through this hot spell. After this extreme heat, many people who could afford it got air conditioning — in an area known for its moderate climate.
• There was summer heatwave in Finland.
• There was a summer heatwave in southern Europe with temperatures up to 48.8.
• A heatwave also hit the Middle East in late summer.

In 2022, there were at least eight major heatwaves:

• January saw a heatwave hit much of South America with temperatures over 44.0. 
• February saw unseasonably high temperatures (up to 24.0) in California.
• India experienced a very hot early spring.
• A major heatwave affected the US in May with temperatures up to 35.0.
• In June, a record-breaking heatwave hit much of the US with temperatures up to 38.0.
• Also in early summer, Japan experienced the worst heatwave in 150 years.
• In July, there were heatwaves across western Europe with temperatures up to 47.0.
• China suffered several heatwaves.

In 2023, there were several major heatwaves, including:

• In April, heatwaves occurred in South Asia, Indochina and parts of China. High temperatures of up to 44.6.
• In May, there was a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest of North America.
• July saw a record-breaking heatwave in much of Europe.
• There was an autumn heatwave in western Europe with temperatures up to 36.5.

In 2024, there were at least eight major heatwaves:

• There were severe spring heatwaves in Mexico, the southern US and Central America.
• In April, Southeast Asia had a heatwave with temperatures up to 38.8.
• In May, India and Pakistan had an extreme heatwave with temperatures of up to 53.0.
• A summer heatwave hit Greece and Turkey with temperatures up to 44.0.
• The Middle East had extremely hot weather with temperatures up to 45.0.
• In June, a heatwave struck Pakistan.
• There was a summer heatwave in western Europe.
• There was a record-breaking summer heatwave in Japan.

In summary, there have been many extremely hot periods worldwide over the past few years. You can expect the future to be worse.

What does the future hold?

Most global heating forecasts focus on alternative mitigation scenarios — what could happen if we make the transition to clean energy. At this point, I see no reason to be optimistic. We’ve been aware of the detrimental climate impact of burning fossil fuels, deforestation and other human activities for a hundred years or more. We had an opportunity to act responsibly in the 1980’s before the issue became ridiculously politicized. In the current nasty, ignorant and shortsighted geopolitical environment, I think past forecasts are probably optimistic.

After looking at a few reputable sources, my take is that we are approaching or have already exceeded the 1.5 degrees over the late nineteenth century baseline. In other words, we have already failed to hold the line outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. 

How hot will the earth be in 2050, twenty-five years from now?

Most status quo forecasts show continued increases in the average global temperatures for the next twenty-five years. I think that the rate of increase over the next twenty-five years will probably be greater than in the equivalent period since 2000. I think that the global mean temperature will increase by at least 2.0 degrees over the late nineteenth century baseline. This will be catastrophic for Earth and for humankind.

Impacts of continued global heating

Here are some of the things we can look forward to over the next twenty-five years (and it will most likely get worse after that):

• More frequent and more intense heatwaves leading to more wildfires, droughts and heat-related illness.
• An increase in the number of intense hurricanes, cyclones, and storms due to warmer ocean temperatures.
• More flooding due to increased precipitation and sea level rise.
• Increased coastal erosion and displacement of millions of people living in low-lying areas.
• Death of almost all coral reefs.
• Ecosystem collapses and mass extinctions for many species.
• Ocean acidification harming marine life, reducing food supply.
• Crop failures due to extreme heat, droughts, and changing rainfall patterns, reducing global food supply.
• Water shortages in many regions as glaciers and snowpacks shrink.
• Increase in heat-related illnesses and deaths.
• Spread of diseases like malaria and dengue due to expanded mosquito habitats.
• Air pollution and respiratory diseases worsened by wildfires and smog.
• Damage to infrastructure from extreme weather events, increasing economic losses.
• More people will be forced to leave uninhabitable areas creating millions of climate refugees.
• Conflicts over resources like water and arable land, leading to political instability and wars.

Have you heard enough? It’s going to get hotter than hell!

This is the world we will endure over the next twenty-five years, and this is the world we have left our children and grandchildren.